OPEC and other non-OPEC members, led by Russia, agreed last week to relax production restrictions that had been in New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil trading hoursplace for eight months to prevent a surge in oil prices. As of press time, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.7% to $767 per barrel; US crude oil futures rose 0.44% to $70.84 per barrel.
According to OPEC data, Venezuela's crude oil production has dropped from an average of 240,000 barrels per day in 206 to 960,000 barrels per day in 207. By the month of 208, production had fallen to 480,000 barrels per day.
Oil prices rose for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, July 25, after US government data showed that domestic crude oil inventories fell to the lowest level since February 205, alleviating concerns about oversupply that have weighed on the market in recent weeks.
Anyone who has done spot crude oil investment knows that shocks are an essential part of price fluctuations, and all unilateral markets also need shocks to brew. Our so-called technical indicators are actually not very big in the process of shocks. What matters is that for people with sufficient real trading experience, it is actually to judge the direction of the market by figuring out the main force's intentions and the time point and pattern of the market's operation, that is, the overall mood of the market.
Kupchan said: I think Iran will withdraw from the nuclear agreement in August or September. Iran’s view is that the nuclear agreement is a commercial agreement unless EU member states find a way to continue buying Iranian crude oil and continue to provide foreign direct investment. Perhaps by September or the end of this year, the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan JCPOA will become part of the history book.
As of press time at 0:20 on the 28th, Beijing time, WTI oil price was reported at $547/barrel, and Brent oil price was reported at $650/barrel. As of the 25th of the monthNew York Mercantile Exchange crude oil trading hours, the rate of change of crude oil was 7%, and the price of refined oil rose correspondingly by RMB 245/ton.
Dutch bank ING said that due to geopolitical risks and some bullish factors in the oil market, Brent crude oil has rebounded to over US$70 in April. ING also raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 208 from $60.25 to $650, and its forecast for WTI in 208 from $575 to $650. However, ING said that due to increased US crude oil production, crude oil prices are expected to fall in 209.
It is worth noting that some countries participating in production cuts have idle capacity, while others have not. In other words, if oil prices fall, only Russia and the Arab countries in the Gulf region will be the beneficiaries. Analysts predict that the OPEC meeting in June will be full of gunpowder. It may be difficult for Russia and Saudi Arabia to persuade all countries to focus on long-term market stability.
Andurand believes that due to concerns that electric vehicles will curb future demand for crude oil, energy companies are currently sparsely willing to invest in new projects, which may bring the largest supply shock in history, leading to soaring oil prices.