In the long run, the surge in oil prices may be constrained by two main factors. FirsSpot price of selected crude oil in Western Canadat, oil traders will pay close attention to how American shale oil extractors can respond to oil prices reaching $70 by increasing production. New healthy oil production in the United States may cool the market.
Iran is OPEC's third largest oil producer, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The re-imposed sanctions may reduce Iran’s oil supply by 500,000 barrels per day, or even reach 0 million barrels per day. The worst thing for Iran is Trump's call for the highest level of sanctions against Iran.
In addition, the three countries of Iraq, Libya and Nigeria are also very unstable. As long as the protests in one of these countries become worse, crude oil production will decline. Sen said that given the tight market,
It is worth mentioning that although Saudi Arabia is helping Trump curb natural gas and oil prices on the one hand, it is also taking this opportunity to regain the US crude oil market. According to data reported by the EIA, in the week ending August 1, the four-week average of US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia exceeded 1 million barrels per day for the first time since June 207. In fact, nearly half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production increase since late May has been exported to the United States.
India’s oil minister said that the Saudi oil minister told him that Saudi Arabia is reconsidering its production cut policy, which supported oil prices. In addition, sources revealed on Tuesday that the US government has informally asked Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil-producing countries to increase production.
But Russia is not interested in reducing production. As of last Wednesday, 28th, Russia said it refused to join any new production cut plans. Russia’s Energy Minister Sangda Novak once stateSpot price of selected crude oil in Western Canadad that OPEC and other oil-producing countries need to pay close attention to supply and demand in the next few weeks, and then make judgments on production cuts. The Russian Minister of Energy said this because he believed that Russia’s crude oil production was just right, and it was insufficient to cut production.
It is reported that India not only will not stop importing Iranian oil, but also intends to purchase 9 million barrels of Iranian oil this month. A source said that the refinery has submitted a plan to purchase 250,000 tons of crude oil from Iran a month, equivalent to 9 million barrels of crude oil, of which the Indian Petroleum Corporation will purchase 6 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, and the Mangalore Refining and Petrochemical MRPL will purchase 0 million barrels. barrel. A second source said that India will continue to maintain links between Iran and the United States, two key energy partners.
The Baker Hughes report on 29th showed that in the week ended 29th, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States decreased by seven to 797, the first drop in three weeks. However, US crude oil production has reached 040,000 barrels per day, surpassing Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, and approaching the production capacity of Russia, the largest oil producer, of nearly 0 million barrels per day.