Innes said: The bulls regain the upper hand, especially after traders have shown a high degree of resistance to the unexpected rise in inventories revealed by the API survey. He was referring to the American Petroleum U.S. crude oil pipeline projectInstitute API’s announcement on September 8 on Tuesday that US crude oil inventories increased by 200,000 barrels last week.
According to the latest report of the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will soar to 70,000% by the end of the year due to the government’s failure to make up for the expansion of the budget deficit by printing money.
As mentioned earlier, the situation in the Middle East is a strong external factor affecting crude oil prices this year, and the core of oil prices lies in the competition between U.S. oil production and OPEC’s production cuts. A few days ago, EIA announced the latest news showing that U.S. crude oil production this year. It is estimated to be an average of 0.72 million barrels per day, higher than the record of 9.6 million barrels per day set in 970; crude oil production next year is expected to reach 860,000 barrels per day. The US government reiterated that its crude oil production will reach 0 million barrels per day in October this year, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest oil producer.
In the evening, there are not only EIA stock announcements, but also various potential risks. For example, the United States requires OPEC to increase production by 0 million barrels per day, and the Russian oil minister discusses OPEC production reduction agreements. These potential risks may trigger short oil prices. Therefore, crude oil investors Faced with the prospect of a substantial reduction in EIA inventory and more profits, it is not possible to do more with full positions, because the risk of liquidation soars.
Iran’s crude oil production is about 800,000 barrels per day, and the country is also OPEC’s third largest oil producer, second only to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Iran's production accounts for about 4% of global oil supply. Since the Iranian nuclear agreement came into effect, its crude oil exports have risen from less than 0 million barrels to about 2.5 million barrels per day. Most of them are exported to Asia, and exports to Europe are about 600,000 barrels per day.
Objectively speaking, oil prices have seasonal characteristics. Every summer is the peak of travel in the United States, and the strong demand for gasoline will also ease the pressure on crude oil inventories to a certain extent. The recent refinery operating rate has also verified this. In addition, the current supply of the United States has maintained an upward momentum, but the transportation bottleneck is not resolved, which will inevitably affect its export volume. Currently, several important transportation lines are basically operating at full capacity. Therefore, the possibility of a surge in US production is relatively low. Although shale oil manufacturers have such prU.S. crude oil pipeline projectoduction capacity, high transportation costs will limit the start of new drilling.
Kwangrae said that as oil prices approach the 20-day moving average, technical signals are rebounding; and until OPEC's meeting later this month provides more details on its next move, it will continue to see oil price fluctuations.
On the other hand, the French oil giant Total’s plant in Gabon, a West African country, suffered a continuous strike that may last for five days. Local workers demanded wage increases and improved working conditions. This situation may make the international oil market, which is already in short supply, even worse.