Last week, amid concerns about the situation in Syria, the trend of crude oil hit its best record in eight months. With the progress of the production reduction agreement, OPEC said on Thursday that the global oCrude oil trading planil inventory surplus was close to evaporating, and added that its total production fell to 960,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 200,000 barrels from February.
However, domestic refined oil prices are indeed coming down. On the 0th, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open, and today is the second working day of this round of pricing cycle. According to agency estimates, as of the first working day, the rate of change in crude oil was minus 6%, corresponding to a reduction of 200 yuan/ton for refined oil.
Today, four senior officials of the European Central Bank Management Committee Villeroy de Gallo, Executive Committee Member Mursch, Executive Committee Lautenschleger and Executive Committee Cole will successively make important speeches. Among them, Lautenschleger will address monetary policy. Give a speech. The recent debate on when the European Central Bank will end QE has become particularly intense.
On September, my country's refined oil products experienced the 7th round of price adjustments during the year, with gasoline and diesel increased by 80 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively. This is the 0th time that my country's refined oil prices have been raised this year. If a private car's fuel tank is 50 liters, it will cost an extra 7 yuan to fill a tank. On September 7, refined oil will usher in the 8th oil price adjustment, which is expected to increase with a high probability. According to the latest calculation data, the current crude oil comprehensive rate of change is %, and the oil price is expected to increase by 0 yuan/ton. At present, the average selling price of No. 92 gasoline in China is around 5 yuan per liter. If the price of oil rises above gross on September 7, it will soon exceed 6 yuan.
④ Potential bullish effects. For example, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in April was less than expected, which will surely cool down the Fed's rate hike expectations. At the same time, Italy’s Brexit risk. With the prospect of rising risk aversion in the financial market, if Italy’s Brexit risk breaks out, crude oil prices will surely usher in a new round of rising points.
According to data released by Hughes on Friday, April 27, as of the week of April 27, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased by 5 to 825, which recorded an increase for four consecutive weeks and continued to hit a new monthly high in 205 years. Since April, the number of active oil wells in the United StateCrude oil trading plans has increased by 28, while the number has decreased by 2 in the month, and has increased by 78 so far this year. More data shows that the total number of active oil and gas wells in the United States increased by 8 to 02 in the week ending April 20.
It further shows that the oil market will continue to be in a stage of oversupply in the future, and it may be difficult to achieve the short supply of the oil market in 209 predicted by the IEA earlier. Against this background, it is very likely that international oil prices will fall to the $40 mark, and domestic refined oil prices may also usher in the last wave of downward adjustments during the year.
However, the outlook for oil prices is still not optimistic. The fundamentals of the oil market are still under pressure. The output of the three major oil-producing countries, Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia, are all rising. In early June, Russia's oil production has increased to 0 million barrels per day. U.S. oil production has risen to a record 0.8 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its May crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels/day to 0 million barrels/day.