According to the U.S. 5-year oil outlook report released by the International Energy Agency, the total US crude oil exports are expected to double to 4.2 million barrels per day in 2024, while the total crude oil and refined oil exports will reach 9 millioU.S. crude oil import datan barrels per day. IEA pointed out that the United States is expected to become a net oil exporter by 202 years, and will soon surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil country. This also means that the United States will no longer need to import so much oil. Even affected by American oil, Canadian oil may have to exit the global market early.
According to data from Platts Energy Information, Iran’s monthly output has recovered to 820,000 barrels per day. Since the signing in 205, Iran’s crude oil production has risen by about 0 million barrels. Any US action is expected to be based on Iran’s output. Direct impact.
It is reported that the country has offered different plans to increase production. One of the proposals is to achieve a two-step increase in production in 208, that is, to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day in the next few months, and continue to increase crude oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. There is also another plan to gradually increase production by 600-700,000 barrels per day in the future.
To this end, Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, suspended a number of Obama-era plans and laws, and re-strengthened the role of fossil fuels in the US economy, lifted the US government’s restrictions and interference in energy production, and accelerated the development of infrastructure in the oil and gas sector. Approval and construction speed etc. to produce and export more oil and natural gas.
In summary, short positions in the crude oil market are strong, and long positions in crude oil prices lack strong support. There is a risk of breaking the $65 mark below. Today's crude oil market news and data are relatively light. If there are no surprises, oil prices will continue to fall. However, the editor reminds investors to pay attention to the risk of short covering.
On May 25, it was stated in public that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a basic agreement. The two sides believe that it is time to release production, which is more likely to happen in the second half of U.S. crude oil import datathis year. Whether the release of production is 0 million barrels per day or not has to wait. Discussion at the June meeting.
Oil prices continued to fluctuate horizontally after opening low during the Asian session. As OPEC announced an increase in production last week, the actual increase in production was lower than expected, triggering a retaliatory rebound in oil prices. However, with the resolute motivation to increase production revealed in the speeches of major member states officials over the weekend, and US President Trump once again put pressure on OPEC to increase production, whether the oil price outlook can continue the strong momentum since last week remains uncertain.