As the supply of oil from Iran and Venezuela has dropped sharply this year, iCrude oil market capitalnternational oil prices have also become extremely unstable. Crude oil has reached US$80 per barrel this year. Judging from the current situation, the possibility of further increases in oil prices cannot be ruled out.
In fact, in Asia, signs of a slowdown in demand for crude oil have long been revealed. Reuters pointed out that the appetites of Asia's two largest oil importers, and India, have deteriorated. Shipping data show that the imports of the two countries in July were about 500,000 barrels/day lower than the June average of 2.4 million barrels/day.
The EIA crude oil inventory and the number of oil rigs announced by the United States on Wednesday triggered shocks in spot crude oil. However, the current market is dominated by the OPEC meeting on June 0. Investors have doubts about whether an agreement can be reached at this meeting, which has caused the two oil companies to trade in shocks. Declined slightly. Before the results of the OPEC meeting next week are announced, spot crude oil prices may continue to stalemately fluctuate. The light trading during the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States may limit the volatility of oil prices. [The market is sluggish and production cuts are difficult to boost oil prices] The market is sluggish. Because the United States is a holiday, and there are still uncertainties in the oil-producing countries' production reduction plan led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the market is unwilling to make major moves on price trends. Bet. China Petroleum Finance Network reminded that OPEC will meet on March 0 to coordinate production cuts, and non-OPEC member Russia may also attend, but there are differences within the organization on who should cut production and how much. Analysts believe that OPEC will reach some form of production cut, but whether this will be enough to push the market up is still uncertain. The market has been tired of oversupply for more than two years. [The problem of frozen production is still rising] For the time being, although Iraq has promised to freeze production, Iran has not yet made a clear statement, but even if frozen production can eventually be achieved, the oversupply situation in the global crude oil market still faces two major problems. : American shale oil. Earlier, there were reports and analyses that if OPEC reached an agreement to freeze production and crude oil prices rebounded upwards, US shale oil producers would substantially increase production, which is like a positive and a negative effect canceling each other out. 2: Market demand declines. The fundamental factor that determines the price of crude oil is never the supply side, but the demand. Even if the inventory decreases, it will be difficult to change the oversupply situation. [The oil market is light, don’t be cautious about OPEC's production cut stimulus] Spot crude oil: Today, the US Thanksgiving Day, the daytime crude oil market trading is light, there is basically no opportunity to place orders, and the space is not big, let’s not say, the main reason is the recent production cut The meeting is approaching, and news of the market's sudden production cuts emerges one after another. Such an environment makes the risk of placing orders soar. China Petroleum Finance Network also reminded investors to pay attention to risk control. No matter how strong the technical analysis is in the recent environment, Saudi Arabia and Iran will not be able to bear a word. The turbulent environment must have turbulent market conditions, and risks and profits must be expanding at the same time. While maintaining the low-level approach to more than one, we still remind investors to place orders around market news. The idea of spot crude oil operation: low-level and more-oriented.
OPEC and some non-OPEC oil-producing countries will meet in Vienna on June 22 to discuss whether the production limit commitment should remain unchanged. ANZ Bank said that with three weeks to go before the OPEC meeting, oil prices may still be extra-sensitive to headlines.
At the same time, CNBC reported that Paul Ciana, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, used two special charts to point out that in the next 6 to 2 months, oil prices may rebound sharply, resulting in substantial returns.
Pulikkan also emphasized the risk of crude oil flooding into inventories in the Permian Basin and elsewhere in the interior and increasing the capacity of Gulf Coast ports. He estimated that the effCrude oil market capitalective export capacity of those ports is about 2 million barrels/day, the current export volume is about 600,000 barrels/day, and more facilities are under construction, but everything about the future is unknown.
Based on the above deduction, we believe that the increase in crude oil prices is not sustainable. When resource countries realize the conflict of interest with the United States, oil suppliers in Russia and the Middle East are likely to adjust their production-limiting and price-increasing strategies to amplify supply and stabilize oil prices so as to prevent the United States from reaping the profits.
The official said that Iran will be financially exhausted in this way. The official announced that a US delegation will travel to the Gulf region next week. The oil exporters there are working to increase production so that global supply is not affected.