In the last month, US crude oil prices climbed to 72 US dollars per barrel, and then fell below 67 US dollars per barrel, but AU.S. domestic crude oil supply datamerican consumers still feel the pressure on gasoline prices from rising oil prices. According to data released by the American Automobile Association AAA, in the past year, the national retail price of gasoline has risen by 25% to $90 per gallon.
This week, crude oil prices fell by more than %, ending at 49 US dollars per barrel, falling from above 5 US dollars to around 45 US dollars, a decline span of 5 US dollars. In other words, if oil prices fall to near the $40 floor price next week, the weekly decline may reach 0%.
Youngberg believes that with the increase in Brent crude oil prices, the increase in crude oil supply and U.S. crude oil futures prices will continue until July. It is expected that the growth of U.S. oil production will slow, and the growth of crude oil supply will also slow.
The recent expansion of the inverse spread is consistent with the tightening trend of oil inventories in the physical market. Over the past five months, OECD oil inventories have fallen steadily. The month has dropped to 200 million barrels. The International Energy Agency IEA predicts that crude oil inventories may reach a 5-year average in May.
In the past two weeks, API inventories have recorded an increase of 0.9 million barrels and 40,000 barrels respectively. More importantly, the successively announced EIA inventory data has also been consistent with the API inventory results, and the same two weeks recorded a significant increase. In today's crude oil landscape, API and EIA seem to be operating in the same direction. Therefore, if API inventories record a sharp increase again tonight, it is likely to counteract the rise in crude oil brought about by Trump's tearing up of the Iran nuclear agreement. More importantly, there are still EIA stocks on Wednesday. If the same increase occurs again, it will further limit the increase in crude oil prices.
In the past week, as the soul of OPEC's frozen production reignited, oil prices rose by $9. The main driving force behind it was a sentence from Saudi Energy Minister Falih, plus Russia's open attitude to frozen production. This has rekindled the expectation that the mU.S. domestic crude oil supply dataajor oil-producing countries will jointly take measures to restrict production. In order to prevent oil prices from falling into the US$20/barrel range, OPEC lobbied to freeze production. Although the fundamentals of supply and demand are still sluggish, the April meeting of oil-producing countries in Doha to freeze production ended without results. After all, oil prices have rebounded to nearly US$50/barrel. The frozen production results this time are also expected to be the same.
Iraqi Oil Minister Lu Aibi said in a speech that OPEC will meet on June 2, but the increase in production is not on the negotiating table. He believes that the current crude oil market is stable and the price is right, and there is no need to increase production. Some sources said that OPEC and non-OPEC will continue to maintain the agreement to cut production until the end of 208 or even longer, but if necessary, adjust the level of production cuts, which will temporarily fade the haze of increased production that has plagued the oil market recently and bring effective support to oil prices.
Rising oil prices this year may further slow down the rate of decline in oil production. However, the oil production of the United States and Russia is the most important because they are the two largest oil producers in the world. Russia’s oil prices have recently risen. Oil prices in rubles have reached a record high. In addition, US shale oil expenditures have increased, and these circumstances should make this year's production decline rate lower than in the past few years.
Today's spot crude oil trend forecast: today's pressure level is 40, support level is 40, and the slow low decline is accompanied by a certain rebound correction. After the inertia declines, you can try to do short-term long. Compared with the previous unilateral decline, it is now beginning to slow down. The current trend is still bearish, but it is bullish in the short-term. It is expected to rebound first and then decline today!
As for whether the panic in the Middle East will disappear in the future, it is actually very difficult, because as a region rich in oil resources, it will inevitably lead to coveting by many countries and conflicts will inevitably occur. Moreover, the interior of the Middle East is not in harmony. Saudi Arabia and Iran have always been in a state of competition with each other. The economic crisis in Venezuela has also been affecting the situation in the entire Middle East. There is also the Syrian issue. Although it has subsided recently, it has not been resolved. Therefore, there are still many uncertain factors in the Middle East in the future. May cause violent fluctuations in the entire crude oil market.