According to data from the General Administration of Customs, RussiFXCM crude oil contracta exported 7.49 million tons of crude oil to Russia throughout the year, or about 40,000 barrels per day. Compared with the previous year, it increased by nearly 20% and became the largest crude oil supplier for three consecutive years.
Earlier, US President Trump stated that many of the key issues in the current nuclear agreement with Iran are not very satisfactory. There is neither a deadline for Iran’s abandonment of nuclear weapons nor restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile research. The United States will comment on whether the Iran nuclear agreement will continue on May 2 at the latest. According to the current news, Trump is more inclined to sign a new agreement with Iran.
Finally, after Saudi Arabia cut 0% of its oil exports, it meant that part of the market share was surrendered, and it is inevitable that other oil-producing countries would not be tempted. Will Russia, Libya, Iraq, etc. increase crude oil production? Keep international oil prices under pressure.
According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela’s inflation rate may reach 1 million percent this year. And Maduro’s new economic policies, including the increase in wages and pensions, the abolition of poorly organized currencies, the development of tourism, and the reliance on oil and gold, in the eyes of some economic analysts, have not been able to reassure the public to a great extent, nor can they. To curb soaring prices, instead, there will be market chaos.
Therefore, tonight's non-agricultural data will be very important. Although the previous ADP data has been strong and the market predicts that non-agricultural will also bring good results, if the US dollar does not appreciate it, I am afraid that the impact on crude oil will not be great. If the closing price of crude oil tonight can stabilize above US$66, then the pressure on crude oil will be greatly reduced next week. It can rely on US$66 to continue to try to expand its gains, but if the oil price falls to US$65 tonight, the trend of crude oil will open next week. You may want to pay attention to the $65 job title.
In addition to Rouhani's tough attitude, Iran has also received help from many countries. First of all, in the last two days, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has twice firmly stated that it does not approve of this unilateralist approach by the United States and will not stop buying Iranian oil after the 4th. In addition, Iran has shipped up to 20 million barrels of oil, storedFXCM crude oil contract in it, and then sold it to other countries.
Goldman Sachs said that the demand for crude oil will further increase, which may be higher than previous estimates. Energy information company Wood Mackenzie analyst Sures Svalandan said that he believes this year's crude oil demand will increase by 70,000 barrels per day to 2.78 million barrels per day.
How much growth does this require? Macmillan said an annual growth rate of 80% or more. He said that historically, rising oil prices will lead to a slowdown or even recession in the US economy. We have not reached that point yet. He said that at this time last year, the price of a barrel of oil was about US$45 to US$50, so the danger zone was US$8 to US$90 per barrel.
Saudi Energy Minister Falih stated at the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries joint ministerial supervisory committee meeting held in Algiers on September 2 that the current priority of oil-producing countries is to maintain sustained international oil prices. Maintaining oil prices at US$80 per barrel is beneficial to both oil-producing and consuming countries. At this meeting, OPEC's rotating chairman and UAE Energy Minister Mazrui emphasized that OPEC is not a political organization and will not succumb to external pressure. Russian Energy Minister Novak accused of disrupting international oil prices through political means, calling on OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries to maintain cooperation to ensure long-term stability of oil prices.